If you’ve been reading post-election coverage, you’ve probably seen one of the big takeaways from the returns so far: In counties across the country, Kamala Harris won many fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago.
With the vast majority of votes counted, she has more than 74 million; Mr. Biden received more than 81 million four years ago. Donald J. Trump, in contrast, has 77 million votes, up from 74 million four years ago.
The drop-off in Democratic vote tallies was largest in big cities. In places like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, Mr. Trump made significant gains in terms of vote share but didn’t necessarily earn many more votes than he did four years ago. Instead, Democratic tallies plunged.
As such, it’s tempting to conclude that Democrats simply didn’t turn out this year — and that Ms. Harris might have won if they had voted in the numbers they did four years ago.
This interpretation would be a mistake.
For one, the story doesn’t apply to the battlegrounds, where turnout was much higher. In all seven battleground states, Mr. Trump won more votes than Mr. Biden did four years ago.
More important, it is wrong to assume that the voters who stayed home would have backed Ms. Harris. Even if they had been dragged to the polls, it might not have meaningfully helped her.
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