With one day left in the 2024 campaignsg777, the polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics.
Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes.
In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest. If the poll averages are exactly right down to the decimal (they will not be), Ms. Harris would barely need to outperform the polls to prevail.
Polling Leader If Polls miss like they did in … 2022 2020 U.S. National +1 Harris <1 Harris +3 Trump Wis. Wisconsin +1 Harris +3 Harris +8 Trump Mich. Michigan +1 Harris +6 Harris +5 Trump Pa. Pennsylvania Even +5 Harris +5 Trump N.C. North Carolina +1 Trump <1 Harris +4 Trump Nev. Nevada +1 Trump +1 Harris +4 Trump Ga. Georgia +1 Trump +2 Trump +3 Trump Ariz. Arizona +3 Trump <1 Harris +6 Trump Includes polling as of Nov. 3. See the latest polling averages »The 2004 election between John Kerry and George W. Bush might be the next closest election in terms of polling, but it’s hard to put it in quite the same tier. Even then, Mr. Bush was a modestly clear favorite. Mr. Kerry needed to win states like Florida and Ohio, where Mr. Bush held a consistent if narrow lead in the final polls.
This time, neither Mr. Trump nor Ms. Harris faces such a narrow path to victory. In the key tipping point state in this year’s pre-election polling — Pennsylvania — both candidates can point to several high-quality polls showing them tied or ahead. For good measure, they’re both highly competitive in additional states, should Pennsylvania fall through.
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
226 Harris 230 TrumpElectoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won’t):
251 Harris 287 TrumpElectoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:
226 Harris 312 TrumpElectoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:
303 Harris 235 Trump Includes polling as of Nov. 3. See the latest polling averages »We are having trouble retrieving the article content.
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